The History of Open Conventions in U.S. Presidential Elections
Lessons from History Suggest Internal Divisions Could Hamper Democratic Chances Against a Unified GOP
Presidential elections in the United States have occasionally featured open conventions, where no candidate has secured a majority of delegates heading into the convention. These instances can lead to dramatic political shifts and unexpected outcomes. Since 1896, a few notable open conventions have occurred, impacting both the Democratic and Republican parties. This article explores these historical instances, the candidates involved, and the outcomes of the elections. Additionally, we will analyze the potential implications for the 2024 Democratic convention if it were to be open.
Notable Open Conventions in U.S. History
1. 1924 Democratic National Convention
- Candidates: John W. Davis, William Gibbs McAdoo, and Al Smith
- Outcome: After 103 ballots, John W. Davis was nominated. He faced Republican incumbent Calvin Coolidge in the general election and lost by a significant margin.
2. 1948 Republican National Convention
- Candidates: Thomas E. Dewey, Robert A. Taft, and Harold Stassen
- Outcome: Thomas E. Dewey secured the nomination after a contentious convention. He went on to lose the general election to Democratic incumbent Harry S. Truman in one of the greatest upsets in American political history.
3. 1952 Democratic National Convention
- Candidates: Adlai Stevenson, Estes Kefauver, and Richard Russell Jr.
- Outcome: Adlai Stevenson was nominated after three ballots. He lost to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower in the general election.
4. 1968 Democratic National Convention
- Candidates: Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, and George McGovern
- Outcome: Hubert Humphrey was nominated despite not participating in the primaries. He lost narrowly to Republican Richard Nixon in the general election, amid significant social and political turmoil.
5. 1976 Republican National Convention
- Candidates: Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan
- Outcome: Incumbent President Gerald Ford narrowly secured the nomination. He lost the general election to Democrat Jimmy Carter.
Analysis and Perspective on a Potential Open Convention in 2024
In examining these historical open conventions, several patterns emerge. Open conventions often result in protracted battles within the party, which can weaken the nominee and reduce the party's overall chances in the general election. The internal divisions exposed during such conventions can be challenging to mend, especially in the face of a unified opposition.
If the Democrats were to have an open convention in 2024, the historical precedent suggests several possible outcomes. Assuming President Joe Biden does not secure the nomination and the convention is open:
1. Internal Division: The primary concern would be the potential for deepening divisions within the Democratic Party. Historically, open conventions have revealed and exacerbated internal conflicts, which can alienate key voter blocs.
2. Republican Advantage: Donald Trump would likely benefit from the Democratic infighting. A unified Republican base could exploit the divisions within the Democratic ranks, presenting a stark contrast to voters.
3. General Election Dynamics: The candidate emerging from an open convention might struggle to unify the party and galvanize a broad coalition of voters. This challenge is particularly significant against a polarizing and mobilizing figure like Trump.
4. Historical Comparisons: Drawing parallels with the 1968 and 1976 conventions, the Democrats could face an uphill battle in the general election. Both Humphrey and Ford's post-convention campaigns were hampered by the fractures within their parties, contributing to their eventual defeats.
The history of open conventions in U.S. presidential elections reveals a consistent pattern of internal party struggle and weakened general election performance. If the Democrats were to experience an open convention in 2024 and nominate a candidate other than the incumbent, they would likely face significant challenges. Given Donald Trump's established support within the Republican Party, the Democrats would need to quickly unify and mount a cohesive campaign to counter his influence effectively. Historical precedent suggests that this would be a formidable task, underscoring the high stakes and potential risks associated with an open convention.