Why the Upfront is No Longer the Anchor: Flexibility, Forecasting, and the Future of Media Buying

A More Conservative Marketplace Amid Economic Uncertainty

The detailed 2025/2026 Upfront and NewFront forecast, including proprietary data and category-level insights, is available exclusively to paid subscribers. Scroll down if you're already subscribed. If you're not yet a subscriber, join us now to gain full access to upcoming in-depth forecasts, economic analyses, and strategic guidance for the year ahead in advertising and marketing.

A More Conservative Marketplace Amid Economic Uncertainty

As the 2025/2026 Upfront and NewFront marketplaces take shape, advertisers are approaching with caution. Rising concerns over a potential recession, global instability, and looming tariff threats are prompting marketing leaders to reassess their long-term media commitments. Budgets are shifting—often subtly but significantly—toward platforms that offer flexibility, performance visibility, and just-in-time activation.

Even as total U.S. ad spending is projected to grow modestly by +2.0% in 2025, The Myers Report forecasts double-digit declines in traditional Upfront commitments. Linear TV, for instance, is expected to fall by over 12% year-over-year, while even the red-hot CTV category is showing signs of plateauing, with a forecasted decline of –3.0% in Upfront investments.

This erosion isn’t about audience loss alone—it’s about strategic evolution. Today's advertisers want more than impressions; they want intelligence, accountability, and adaptability. As holding companies lean heavily into AI-powered planning platforms that optimize spend by outcome simulations and real-time results, legacy models of media buying are being fundamentally redefined.

Connected TV, retail media, and social video aren’t just gaining share—they’re redefining the value equation. These platforms offer not just scale, but closed-loop attribution and commerce signals that traditional television can’t yet match without significant infrastructure investment.

Buyers are prioritizing flexibility over volume-based discounts, often bypassing Upfront commitments in favor of programmatic scatter buys that align more closely with performance goals. Meanwhile, many traditional media sellers still rely on sales packages built around linear reach, bundled sponsorships, and pre-digital metrics—creating a widening gap between buyer expectations and seller capabilities.

The real winners in the 2025/2026 cycle will be sellers who can reimagine the Upfront: merging the stability of commitment with the precision and dynamism that AI-enabled media planning now demands.

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Unlock the Full Forecast – and What’s Coming Next

The media and advertising industry is changing faster than ever—and so is the intelligence needed to stay ahead. While today’s column offers a high-level view of the shifting Upfront and NewFront landscape, The Myers Report subscriber edition goes deeper, delivering proprietary forecasts, exclusive data models, and behind-the-scenes insights sourced from industry leaders, agency intelligence, and advanced AI analytics.

Why upgrade? Here's what you’ll gain with a subscription:

• Access to exclusive forecast tables and economic projections by media type

• Detailed category-by-category analyses—TV, CTV, digital video, retail media, audio, out-of-home, and more

• Insights into agency strategy shifts, brand-side priorities, and buying cycle disruptions

• In-depth reporting on option negotiation trends, AI's influence on planning, and performance attribution

• Weekly updates throughout the 2025/2026 planning cycle—only available to subscribers

Coming soon for subscribers:
Over the next several weeks, we’ll publish a series of premium reports that break down the 2025/2026 Marketing, Advertising & Media Economic Forecast, including:

• How retail media is reshaping commerce and consumer activation

• Where linear TV can still win—and where it’s losing ground

• The growing divergence between media sellers and holding company strategies

• Deep dives into emerging media tech, audience trends, and performance measurement

Subscribe today to stay informed, stay competitive, and gain the strategic advantage trusted by the industry’s top leaders.

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